A CNN data analyst pointed to a difficult polling milestone for President Donald Trump on Wednesday, describing the president’s standing with independent voters as particularly troubling as his administration moves deeper into its second term.
During a segment on CNN News Central, anchor John Berman introduced the discussion by noting what he called a notable benchmark in Trump’s approval numbers.
“We have reached a milestone when it comes to President Trump’s approval rating,” Berman said before turning to senior data reporter Harry Enten to break down the numbers.
Enten explained that when polling averages are compiled across multiple surveys, Trump has now spent a full year with a negative net approval rating. According to Enten’s analysis, the president has been “underwater” in overall approval ratings every day since March 12, 2025.
“You know, I took a look at all of the polling, averaged it all together, and we have now reached the year mark,” Enten said. “Every day since March 12th, 2025, President Trump has been underwater and we’ve been counting up the days.”
Enten added that the streak has now reached a full year, describing the situation in blunt terms.
“We have now reached to the point in which Trump has been swimming with the fishes for a year,” he said.
While Trump’s overall numbers remain negative in the polling averages Enten referenced, the analyst emphasized that the president’s biggest political challenge appears to come from one particular segment of voters.
“Underwater overall, but really bad with one voting group,” Berman observed.
Enten agreed, pointing to independent voters as the most significant concern.
“Yeah, really bad with one voting group,” Enten said. “John, you know, we have spoken about this: independents, independents, independents, the center of the electorate. We have been talking about how Trump has been just downright awful with them.”
To illustrate the point, Enten compared Trump’s numbers with those of previous presidents during the same stage of their second terms. Looking at polling averages for former President George W. Bush and former President Barack Obama, Enten said Trump’s standing with independents is significantly worse.
According to the figures Enten cited, Trump is currently 38 points underwater with independent voters. That places him 20 points lower than Obama at the same point in his second term and more than 10 points worse than Bush.
Enten noted that Bush’s second term faced major political difficulties after his early years in office.
“And of course, George W. Bush’s second term went way off the rails,” Enten said.
Enten also referenced a recent Fox News poll that raised additional concerns about the administration’s direction in the eyes of voters.
According to that survey, 60 percent of Americans said they believe the Trump administration is focused on the wrong issues. Among independent voters, the number was even higher.
“Seventy-eight percent of independents say that Trump administration is focused the wrong things,” Enten said.
He suggested that those numbers could create serious political challenges if they persist.
“How does that work politically, John?” Enten asked. “I don’t understand how that works, especially if those numbers hold to the midterm elections. That’s a big frickin’ problem.”
The comments highlight the growing importance of independent voters in national elections, particularly during midterm cycles when turnout patterns can shift quickly. While partisan voters tend to remain firmly aligned with their preferred party, independents often serve as a deciding bloc in competitive races.
As the next round of congressional elections approaches, both parties are watching those numbers closely, knowing that shifts among independent voters can reshape the political landscape just as quickly as events on the world stage.
