California’s gubernatorial race is taking a sharp and unexpected turn, with new polling suggesting Republicans may be regaining a foothold in a state long dominated by Democrats. According to a fresh Emerson College poll, two Republican candidates have risen to the top of the crowded primary field, signaling a potential shift that could carry major implications heading into the general election.
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton leads the pack with 17% support, followed closely by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%. Both Republicans are now outpacing a divided Democratic field, where billionaire Tom Steyer also sits at 14%, tied with Bianco. Notably, both Steyer and Hilton saw gains of four points since the previous Emerson poll in March.
Despite the apparent Republican momentum, the race remains far from settled. A significant 23% of voters are still undecided, and the poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. In a state known for late shifts and unpredictable turnout, those numbers suggest the contest is still wide open.
The Emerson results stand in contrast to another recent survey conducted by SurveyUSA, which painted a different picture. That poll showed Steyer leading with 21%, followed by Hilton at 18%. However, the SurveyUSA data included former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who exited the race this week amid serious allegations of sexual misconduct and rape. His departure appears to have reshaped the dynamics of the Democratic field in ways that may ultimately benefit Republicans.
For months, Hilton and Bianco had maintained steady leads among GOP contenders. That dynamic shifted when Donald Trump unexpectedly endorsed Hilton earlier this month. The endorsement gave Hilton a noticeable boost, seemingly drawing support away from Bianco and tightening the race among Republicans.
Meanwhile, Steyer has poured significant resources into advertising, flooding the airwaves and positioning himself as a leading Democratic contender. For a time, that strategy appeared to be working, with some observers suggesting the race could become a two-way battle between Steyer and Hilton if both advanced.
But Swalwell’s sudden exit introduced new complications for Democrats. Rather than consolidating support behind a single candidate, the party now appears increasingly fractured. According to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball, Democratic voters are now splitting their support among several candidates, including Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and Katie Porter.
Becerra, who previously served as Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden, saw a particularly notable surge. He climbed from just 3% support in March to 10% among all voters in April, including a substantial jump among Democrats following Swalwell’s departure.
The fragmentation within the Democratic field could prove decisive. In California’s jungle primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party affiliation, a divided electorate can create opportunities for candidates who consolidate their base early.
While it remains unclear whether Republicans can maintain their current advantage, the latest polling underscores a broader reality: even in deeply blue states, political dynamics can shift quickly when fields become crowded and fractured. And as this race continues to unfold, the competing strategies, endorsements, and outside influences may shape not only the outcome, but also the tone of a campaign unfolding in an increasingly uncertain political climate.
