The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Texas and Iowa Senate contests to “Toss-Up” races Thursday, pointing to Republican challenges in both states as Democrats look for potential opportunities heading into the elections.
Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report’s Senate and governors editor, cited polling showing Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico maintaining net-positive approval ratings while Republican candidate Ken Paxton suffers from high disapproval.
Taylor wrote that Paxton has also been “notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling.”
Republicans face another question over which GOP groups will be willing to spend heavily on the Texas contest after Senate Republicans already poured significant money into supporting Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
The presence of a Libertarian candidate could also complicate matters for Paxton, according to Taylor.
Some Republican voters unwilling to support the Texas attorney general may also refuse to vote for Talarico, potentially pushing them toward the third-party candidate. Taylor argued that such a scenario would ultimately benefit Democrats.
Talarico, however, has vulnerabilities Republicans are expected to target.
“It’s important to note that Talarico also has liabilities that Republicans can — and will — exploit, including his comments that ‘God is non-binary’ and that there are multiple genders,” Taylor wrote.
She predicted Republicans would spend millions of dollars on advertisements portraying Talarico as outside the mainstream.
At the same time, Taylor said the “soft-spoken seminary student” possesses qualities that could appeal to disaffected Republicans, a group his campaign is actively pursuing.
Cook also moved Iowa’s Senate race to “Toss-Up,” though Taylor stressed that the shift was not due to concerns about Republican candidate quality.
She described Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, as a strong recruit and fundraiser. Instead, the change reflects a political environment that could provide Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek an opening in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024.
“Three of the four congressional seats are competitive, and the open governor’s race is moving away from them,” Taylor wrote.
She also pointed to rising fertilizer and diesel prices, along with tariffs, as factors uniquely hurting Iowa’s agriculture-dependent economy.
As in Texas, a Libertarian candidate could potentially benefit the Democrat, although Taylor emphasized that Turek still faces an uphill battle.
She said Turek needs to raise additional money to keep Iowa a top-tier Democratic opportunity, while noting Republicans are already spending money to define him with voters.
Taylor cautioned that both ratings could change once campaigns begin spending more seriously, suggesting current Democratic polling strength could represent a midterm “sugar high.”
Republicans also maintain a significant financial advantage, she noted, strengthened by a recent Supreme Court ruling allowing parties and campaigns to coordinate, fundraise and spend unlimited amounts.
That financial edge could help struggling GOP candidates, Taylor wrote, but may not overcome what she described as a sizable Democratic voter enthusiasm advantage.