Vice President JD Vance’s path to the White House got a lot rockier overnight.
Prediction markets cut Vance’s chances of succeeding President Trump after Republicans’ disastrous midterm results, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis saw his chances rise sharply.
On the betting platform Kalshi, Vance’s odds of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination fell from 35% on Tuesday to 27% on Wednesday. DeSantis jumped from just 5% to 17%, more than tripling his share in under 24 hours.
The market for the presidency itself moved just as sharply. Vance fell from 19% to 12%, while DeSantis climbed from 2.7% to 6%.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also gained ground, narrowing his gap with Vance in some markets.
The shake-up followed sweeping Democratic victories that cost Republicans control of both the House and Senate, a major blow to Trump’s second-term agenda.
Vance had been widely seen as the frontrunner. In September, Kalshi had him at 45% for the nomination, with DeSantis in the low single digits. Now Republican lawmakers and commentators are downgrading his chances. They point to his role defending the administration’s policies, including the war in Iran and high gas prices, that fueled Tuesday’s losses.
“For JD Vance, good luck,” former Republican Rep. Trey Gowdy said on Fox News Wednesday, calling Rubio the only Republican winner of the night. Indiana Rep. Marlin Stutzman went further and endorsed Rubio for president. Rubio said in September he has no current plans to run.
DeSantis, meanwhile, timed his break with the White House well. Just hours before polls opened, he criticized the administration’s handling of the Iran war, rising gas prices and immigration enforcement, calling the White House’s messaging “gaslighting.” He warned that Republican candidates were running into the wind and that Democrats had more momentum.
DeSantis had also warned about a lack of enthusiasm among Republican voters before Election Day. Florida turned out to be one of the few bright spots for the GOP. Rep. Byron Donalds won the governor’s race, and Sen. Ashley Moody held her seat in a closer-than-expected contest.
At a press conference Wednesday, DeSantis said calling the night a wave would not be accurate. “It was more like a meteor strike,” he said. He credited Florida’s results partly to putting a property tax elimination measure on the ballot.
“DeSantis just became the front runner for 2028,” former Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci posted on social media.
DeSantis ran against Trump in the 2024 primary before mending fences with him. He remains popular with the MAGA base without carrying the baggage of the administration’s most unpopular policies.
Vance, for his part, moved quickly Wednesday to distance himself from the Iran war, blaming the conflict for the party’s defeat.
On the Democratic side, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has been floated as a 2028 contender, won a second term. He defeated Trump-backed Republican Rep. Mike Collins.
