Democrats were celebrating Sunday after flipping a Texas special election seat, but a deeper look at the numbers suggests the party’s excitement may be short-lived. Even CNN’s own data guru, Harry Enten, warned that long-term population trends spell serious trouble for Democrats, despite their surprise win in a deep-red district.
The celebration followed Saturday’s shock result in a Texas state Senate race, where first-time candidate and local union leader Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a wide margin. Wambsganss had been endorsed by President Donald Trump, and the district was considered safely Republican. Trump carried it by more than 17 points in the 2024 election. Yet Rehmet cruised to a double-digit victory, winning 57 percent of the vote to Wambsganss’s 43 percent.
While Democrats seized on the result as proof of momentum, Enten offered a starkly different perspective during an appearance on CNN Newsroom with anchor Jessica Dean. After briefly discussing the frigid winter weather, Enten pivoted to what he said really matters in politics: the long-term picture.
“In politics, we often lose sight of the long term because we’re so focused in on the short term,” Enten said, explaining that he wanted to examine population trends that stretch beyond a single election cycle.
Those trends, Enten warned, should be setting off alarm bells for Democrats across the country. He said they should also be giving Republicans plenty of reason to smile. The states experiencing the biggest population gains since the 2020 Census are overwhelmingly Republican-leaning. The top five — Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona — all voted for Trump in 2024.
According to Enten, the problem for Democrats goes far beyond a handful of red states growing faster than others. He described the situation as not just a red-state boom, but what he called a “blue state depression.” Americans are increasingly moving out of traditionally Democratic states and relocating to Republican-led states.
Enten pointed out that the five states with the lowest domestic net migration so far this decade were all won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024: California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. If those trends continue, the political consequences could be significant once the next Census is taken in 2030.
Because seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are apportioned based on population, Enten said Democrats stand to lose ground. If the 2025 population shifts hold through the next Census, states Harris won would collectively lose seven House seats. At the same time, states Trump carried would gain seven seats, tilting the balance of power even further toward Republicans.
The impact wouldn’t stop there. Enten explained that population shifts also affect the Electoral College, since each state’s electoral votes are determined by its number of House seats plus two senators.
Looking back at 2024, Enten noted that Democrats relied heavily on the so-called “blue wall.” Under that strategy, Harris could win the traditional Democratic states and add Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
But applying current population estimates changes that math. Under those projections, Democrats would fall short, landing at just 263 electoral votes. That scenario would hand Republicans an Electoral College victory.
Enten acknowledged that reapportionment is still years away, but said the direction of the trend is already clear. Red states are gaining people, blue states are losing them, and Americans are voting with their feet.
If those patterns continue through 2030, Enten warned, Democrats could find that winning the White House becomes far more difficult, regardless of how many special elections they manage to celebrate along the way.
