President Donald Trump’s endorsement continues to carry enormous weight in Republican primary elections, according to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, who pointed to prediction market data showing a dramatic surge in support for Darline Graham Nordone after receiving the president’s backing.
Enten highlighted the rapid shift during a CNN segment, explaining that Nordone’s chances of winning the Republican special primary for the South Carolina Senate seat previously held by her late brother, Lindsey Graham, climbed sharply after Trump endorsed her candidacy.
Trump was the first to publicly encourage Nordone to seek the seat following Lindsey Graham’s sudden death on July 11, calling the move “a fabulous tribute to Lindsey!”
According to Enten, prediction markets reflected little confidence in Nordone’s prospects before the endorsement.
“Darline Graham’s chances have rocketed up because rarely has the power of one man and his endorsements in primaries has been as strong [as] with Donald Trump,” Enten said.
He pointed to figures from the Kalshi prediction markets, noting that as recently as Friday, Nordone’s chances of winning the South Carolina Republican primary stood at just 14%.
That changed dramatically after Trump announced his support.
“Now an 80% chance as the Trump endorsement has come in,” Enten said, adding that Nordone had also announced she would seek a full six-year Senate term.
While acknowledging that an 80% probability does not guarantee victory, Enten said the increase was significant.
“We’re seeing an 80% chance,” he explained. “Look, that’s not 100%, but it is way, way higher than a 14% chance. She’s the clear favorite to fill that seat, at least win the primary.”
CNN anchor John Berman noted the speed of the shift, observing that it represented a major change in only a matter of days.
“That’s a big change in a very short period of time there,” Berman said before asking Enten about Trump’s overall track record when endorsing candidates in Republican Senate primaries.
Enten responded by arguing that Trump’s history of success helps explain why prediction markets reacted so quickly.
“There’s a reason why this 14% became 80%,” Enten said. “And that is because when it comes to Senate primaries, Donald Trump’s record is magnificent.”
Enten specified that the figures he referenced excluded elected incumbents, instead focusing on open Senate seats and appointed incumbents who had never previously won election to the Senate.
According to the data presented by Enten, Trump-backed candidates have won approximately 95% of those Republican Senate primaries since 2022.
He added that in the smaller number of races held this year, candidates endorsed by Trump have won 100% of the Republican Senate primaries referenced in his analysis.
Enten said those results help explain why both prediction markets and political observers shifted so quickly after Trump endorsed Nordone.
“No wonder why the prediction markets and the conventional wisdom have moved so rapidly, once Trump made that endorsement,” Enten said.
He concluded by arguing that Trump’s influence in Republican primaries remains unmatched.
“At least in Senate races, Trump’s record this year 100%,” Enten said. “And since 2022, nearly 100%, there has never been somebody I have seen as powerful in terms of their ability to move the electorate in primaries than the current president of the United States, Donald John Trump.”
