Nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report has moved 19 House seats in Democrats’ direction with less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, according to its latest report published Friday.
The changes include six Republicans whose races were previously rated as “toss-ups” and have now been shifted to “Lean Democrat.” Among them are Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.
The new ratings paint a difficult picture for House Republicans in the final stretch of the campaign.
“Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House,” Cook Political Report’s U.S. House editor Erin Covey wrote in the report. “Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican. That leaves 17 races rated as pure Toss Ups.”
TWO OPEN SEATS MOVE TO TOSS-UP
Two open seats, in Kentucky’s 6th District and Texas’ 35th District, have also been moved from “Lean Republican” to “toss-up,” according to Cook’s predictions.
In Kentucky’s 6th District, Democrat Zach Dembo is facing Republican Ralph Alvarado.
In Texas’ 35th District, Democrat Johnny Garcia is going up against Republican Carlos De La Cruz.
DEMOCRATS PROJECTED TO FLIP DOZENS OF SEATS
Per Cook’s analysis, the “likeliest outcome” is “Democrats flipping between 12 and 22 seats.”
Under those projections, Democrats would hold anywhere from 227 to 237 seats next year. Republicans, meanwhile, are projected to hold between 198 and 208 seats.
If that forecast holds, Democrats would secure a House majority, with Cook’s outlook suggesting they are already favored in enough seats to clear the 218-seat threshold needed for control of the chamber.
TRUMP’S APPROVAL HITS NEW LOWS
Cook’s analysis comes as President Trump’s approval ratings have hit new lows in the latest polls from The New York Times/Siena University and CNN, released as the midterm campaign enters its final stretch.
The Times reported Tuesday that the president’s 36 percent approval rating was a record low across all Times/Siena polls.
In the CNN poll, Trump’s approval rating stood at 32 percent, which the outlet reported Tuesday was also a historic low. Voters in that survey expressed broad dissatisfaction with both the economy and the overall state of the country.
The combination of the shifting House ratings and the president’s sagging poll numbers sets up a challenging final push for Republicans as they work to defend their seats.
With 17 races still rated as pure toss-ups and two additional open seats now considered competitive, the battle for control of the House remains in motion heading into Election Day. But according to Cook’s latest forecast, the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign has moved in Democrats’ favor, with 19 seats shifting in their direction in a single round of ratings changes.
