Conservative commentator Scott Jennings is warning that Republicans could be in for a rough night in several Senate races, singling out Texas as one contest that has him worried less than a week before the midterm elections.
Asked during a recent CNN appearance which Senate race he feared Republicans were most likely to lose, Jennings didn’t hold back.
“There are many I’m concerned about. Texas, honestly. It’s got a bad vibe,” Jennings said.
In the Lone Star State, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Democrat James Talarico for an open Senate seat. Republicans have dominated statewide races in Texas for decades, but forecasters now rate the contest a toss-up. Decision Desk HQ gives Talarico a 56% chance of victory, while a University of Houston poll conducted Oct. 10-14 showed Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%.
Still, Jennings said he believes the Republican can pull it off.
“I think Paxton can win,” he added.
Republicans and their allies have poured enormous resources into keeping the seat red. Outside groups have spent $239 million backing Paxton, according to Reuters, with billionaire Elon Musk among the biggest contributors to the effort.
Jennings also flagged Kansas as a concern. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is facing an increasingly competitive challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century. Earlier this month, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report both shifted the race to toss-up. Decision Desk HQ, however, still gives Marshall a 65% chance of keeping his seat. Hamilton has raised $9.4 million, according to CNBC.
Jennings pointed to Alaska as well, citing what he called “Democrat shenanigans” in the race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola.
The contest has been rocked by a dispute over a second candidate on the ballot named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Last week, the Justice Department filed a lawsuit arguing that the presence of a candidate sharing the incumbent’s name could confuse voters and hand Peltola an unfair advantage. The DOJ is seeking to block certification under certain circumstances.
Jennings said he was reluctant to narrow his list down to a single race.
“I hate to limit it to one, because there’s a lot of bad vibes out there,” he said.
His comments reflect growing unease among Republicans about the national environment heading into Election Day, as voters continue to cite the cost of living as a top concern. High gas prices tied to the conflict with Iran have added to the pressure on GOP candidates across the map.
Jennings, a CNN senior political commentator and former special assistant to President George W. Bush, has become one of the most recognizable conservative voices on cable news. He is known for clashing with Democratic panelists in fiery on-air debates.
Midterm elections will be held Tuesday, Nov. 3, with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs.
